A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. Copyright © 2020 MediaWorks TV - All Rights Reserved, By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Access and Privacy Policy. ... Large earthquakes are less common along the central Alpine Fault, ... Dunedin Otago 4.9 12 km 45.97°S 170.52°E Widespread chimney damage in southern suburbs of Dunedin 5 November 1974 Opunake Taranaki 6.0 5.4: 12 km Listen: Mike Puru talks with geologist Martha Savage about New Zealand's largest faultline. ... so for us … The next quake is predicted to be around magnitude 7-7.4. The Akatore Fault is close (20km or less)," he says. After trenching along the fault at the Staples site near the Toaroha River, however, Robert Langridge of GNS Science and colleagues uncovered evidence of a more recent earthquake along the northeastern end of the fault's central portion. This active transform fault ruptures in a large earthquake every 291 ± 23 years, most recently in 1717. Our modelling results … ... (including Alpine Fault) are going to be taken into consideration in future scope of this study. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Privacy Policy Just days after South Island residents were shaken awake by a 5.5 magnitude Alpine Fault quake, University of Otago earthquake expert Professor Mark Stirling warns there's a bigger threat to Dunedin. This document is subject to copyright. The Kaikōura earthquake ... identified on The Humps Fault prior to the earthquake [22], and a recurrence interval of 13,000±8710 years was assigned to the fault [23]. The Due to the Alpine fault earthquake, the two main highways connecting the east of the South Island to the west (SH7 and SH73) and most parts of SH6 will be completely blocked one day post-disaster causing three Districts (Buller, Westland, and Grey) on the west coast to be isolated (Fig. Earthquake-induced tsunami. Thank you for taking your time to send in your valued opinion to Science X editors. 5(b)). The way that earthquake stresses around faults interact is very complex. ... Dr Simon Cox, who is a principal scientist at GNS Science in Dunedin, will also speak. Prof Stirling warns these effects would be "much worse" for Dunedin than a major Alpine Fault quake. We provide bus services in Queenstown and Dunedin to help you get to where you need to go. Langridge said researchers in California and New Zealand have a long history of earthquake science collaboration and are learning from each other about the treatment of active faults and fault segmentation for seismic hazard models. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1449240174198-2'); }); The findings published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America suggest that some places along the fault, particularly around the towns of Hokitika and Greymouth, could experience strong ground shaking from Alpine fault earthquakes more often than previously thought. The fault is not explicitly … Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no Dr. Simon Cox is a Principal Scientist at GNS Science in Dunedin. It is therefore prudent to consider the Akatore Fault as potentially the most likely source of future strong ground shaking for Dunedin.". The effects of graphite and porosity on the mechanics of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. The 3.24am quake was 5km deep and reported by more than 600 people around Queenstown and Wanaka. Get all the information you need to get around Dunedin. In order to prevent massive damage to Dunedin, Prof Stirling urges authorities to put in place effective hazard and risk communication plans to warn the public, and emergency management plans that deal with an Akatore Fault earthquake scenario. The four most recent earthquakes uncovered by the researchers at the site range in dates from 1084 to 1848. "There is no reason to assume that the heightened activity has died off, as it's been less than 1000 years since the last event. As the last quakes lifted a large stretch of New Zealand's southeastern coast up by two-three metres, a University of Otago team has been studying the effects on populations of coastal species. Professor Waters said the Akatore Fault remained a bigger threat to Dunedin than the Alpine Fault, which runs the length of the South Island. In the south of the country, eastward-directed subduction occurs beneath Fiordland on the Puysegur Subduction Zone. Dunedin buses. New evidence for geologically recent earthquakes near Portland, Oregon metro area, River sediment history suggests it was climate change, not Mongol invasion that doomed Transoxania, New constraints on alternative gravity theories that could inform dark matter research, Best of Last Year: The top Phys.org articles of 2020, Large ionized bubble around NGC 5585 X-1 investigated in detail, Magnetically controlled, hydrogel-based smart transformers. However, the findings do suggest that seismic activity on the Alpine Fault is more complex than suspected, particularly along its northern reaches where the plate boundary transitions into another fault zone. It is clear from these results that the … In collaboration with AF8, University of Otago, GNS Science, QuakeCoRE, Emergency Management Otago, and Resilience to Nature's Challenges. New evidence of a 19th century earthquake on New Zealand's Alpine fault suggests that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. The roadshow is supported by the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, the six South … Do equations for groundwater flow refer to water density? "We are calculating peak ground accelerations of >0.5g for Dunedin. This site uses cookies to assist with navigation, analyse your use of our services, and provide content from third parties. The planning workshop is part of a series being led by Jon Mitchell, Project AF8 Programme Manager, in each of the 6 Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Group areas across the South Island in preparation for an eventual … Credits: Image: Getty; Audio: Magic Talk. "The Akatore Fault and the Titri Fault are very close to the city, and if they had their major earthquakes they would shake the city very, very badly compared with what … "I would not expect the Alpine Fault to produce damaging ground shaking in Dunedin as it's too far away from the city. ... New Zealand’s Alpine Fault is a major crustal-scale structure that accommodates around 75% of relative Australian-Pacific plate motion. Xiaoming Wang, Caroline Holden, William Power, Yaoru Liu, Joshu Mountjoy, Seiche Effects in Lake Tekapo, New Zealand, in an Mw8.2 Alpine Fault Earthquake, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 10.1007/s00024-020-02595-w, (2020). The Alpine Fault runs for about 600km along the west of the Southern Alps. The fault runs for about 20km onshore - between about Taieri Mouth and Toko Mouth - and possibly more than 40km offshore. The project goal is to improve the South Island's collective response capability to deal with a future magnitude 8 earthquake. The content is provided for information purposes only. At this stage we are unsure of how the Alpine Fault may have been affected, though it is likely that any effect would be very small. Fortunately this was before the historic settlement of New Zealand. Your feedback will go directly to Science X editors. This means, the Alpine Fault is late in its seismic cycle … This is very strong shaking that would be damaging for Dunedin's old buildings," Prof Stirling told Newshub. As large earthquakes have not been experienced in the area of interest in the historical and instrumental records, user-specified scenario simulations are of great value. Why we need to worry about an Alpine Fault earthquake! A graphic shows an indicative line of the Alpine Fault in relation to Wanaka and Queenstown. We have currently located 63 aftershocks, with 16 being magnitude 3 and above, this is … The events were confirmed by data collected from other nearby trenching sites and from geological deposits called turbidites, which are sediments shaken loose into a body of water by seismic activity, in lakes along the central section of the Alpine fault. "One of the real challenges with the Alpine Fault—because it is so bush-covered—is actually finding sites that have been cleared and therefore can be studied," said Langridge. Recent research (published in 2012) by GNS Science has extended our knowledge of the Alpine fault earthquake record back through the past 8000 years. "One of the outcomes of this study is that you should expect a shorter recurrence interval of strong shaking at fault section ends," Langridge said. Get weekly and/or daily updates delivered to your inbox. Kirilova, Martina Atanasova. The Alpine fault is the Pacific-Australian plate boundary in the South Island of New Zealand. PhD funded by QuakeCoRE to undertake 3d shear wave velocity modelling for ground motion simulations in Dunedin and Mosgiel. Dr Cox and Prof Bradley are speaking only at the Mackenzie events. Fault line . These effects are covered in other papers within this special issue. The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California's San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. GeoNet has issued a warning following a magnitude 5.5 quake this morning near Milford Sound. A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. However, most of the motion on the fault is strike-slip (side to side), with the Tasman district and West Coast … But new evidence of a 19th century earthquake indicates that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. Dunedin’s earthquake hazard was higher than Auckland’s. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand's South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country. A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand's South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country. In her talk Dr Orchiston will outline the science behind the Alpine Fault, progress of Project AF8 so far and describe some of the key issues that will be most relevant for Dunedin in the event of an Alpine Fault earthquake. Radiocarbon dating places this earthquake between 1813 and 1848. "The ancient Akatore uplift was big enough to eliminate entire populations of intertidal species," the researchers say. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, ... What will happen to the earth during the earthquake? Representatives of fifty organisations from throughout Otago met in Dunedin today to participate in planning for the first week of response to a major Alpine Fault earthquake. The effects will be amplified in South Island mountainous regions and high country where enormous damage can occur … In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. 74 ... on the Alpine Fault [7-11]. Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. and Terms of Use. Current work and … Scientists are now studying whether we should expect another Akatore Fault earthquake in the immediate future. Prof Stirling recently said he wanted to make Otago people aware that there were potentially hazardous earthquake sources that were closer to Dunedin than the Alpine Fault. "Once we started working there [at the Staples site] the story really grew in large part because of the richness of dateable organic material in the trenches.". . A smaller seismic event on a local offshore fault could also produce tsunami events along sections of Otago’s coast. "We do think that it's in a heightened phase of activity, and it's hard to say how long that will last. PHOTO: PROJECTAF8.CO.NZ “What we know about the Alpine Fault is that it tends to produce big earthquakes, roughly every 300 years,” Dr Orchiston said. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. "The old Akatore earthquake would have been similar in magnitude to the 2016 Kaikoura quake, with tens of kilometres of rocky coast affected, and the old shore lifted out of the water, well beyond the reach of the waves," says Professor Dave Craw. The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. You can unsubscribe at any time and we'll never share your details to third parties. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. Magnitude-8.0 or greater earthquakes were expected on the Alpine Fault approximately every 300 to 500 years. The Canterbury Plains could suffer more damage in an Alpine Fault quake than some areas closer to the fault, say researchers - and it is not alone. Langridge and colleagues said that there isn't enough evidence yet to favor one of these scenarios over the others. "Because of the recurrence times of earthquakes though, you obviously have to wait a long time to see the effects of such fault behavior. The most recent earthquake could represent a "partial-section" rupture of only the central portion of the Alpine fault, a rupture of the fault's northern section that continued southwest into the central segment, or even triggered slip from a rupture along the nearby Marlborough Fault System. You can be assured our editors closely monitor every feedback sent and will take appropriate actions. part may be reproduced without the written permission. Has this earthquake had any impact on the Alpine Fault? Prof Davies is in the United Kingdom on sabbatical at present so could not be reached for comment on Monday's earthquake and its impact on the Alpine Fault. Evidence is growing the South Island's Alpine Fault, capable of devastating earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above, ruptures more frequently than previously believed. This is a list of large earthquakes that have occurred in New Zealand. Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email. The fault's last quakes were between 1280 years and 760 years ago and moved the ground up to two metres vertically. The most likely source of tsunami events which may affect Otago’s eastern coastline are large earthquakes (magnitude > 8), which cause a vertical displacement of the seabed along a fault line. Medical research advances and health news, The latest engineering, electronics and technology advances, The most comprehensive sci-tech news coverage on the web. Click here to sign in with How many aftershocks have there been, and is this normal? Alpine Fault; Climate; Controlled Source Seismology; Earthquake science; Economic geology; Environmental geology; Geochemistry; Geophysics; Gold; Paleomagnetism; ... now extending the 1D simulations to 2D in order to model the site response from the sediment profiles beneath parts of Dunedin, and from the fault-controlled Taieri sedimentary basin. The information you enter will appear in your e-mail message and is not retained by Phys.org in any form. "The San Andreas Fault, being on the opposite side of the Pacific plate, it is like our distant brother or whanau—family," said Langridge. But if it happened again, given the population and buildings in the area, we wouldn't be so lucky. The last such earthquake took place in 1717. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. Why is the CO2 level lower in my house than outside? "The Akatore Fault is the most active fault in Otago, and is the highest hazard fault for Dunedin," he told Newshub. Dr Caroline Orchiston from the Centre of Sustainability, University of Otago, outlines a new initiative called Project AF8, a multi-agency approach to response and resilience planning for a magnitude 8 earthquake in the South Island. Synthetic ground motions are used as a forcing boundary to drive lake water motions by further developing a tsunami simulation model—COMCOT—and coupling it with earthquake simulation model outputs. 5.0 earthquakes and aftershocks in 1997, which occurred close to the central part of the Alpine fault. Just days after South Island residents were shaken awake by a 5.5 magnitude Alpine Fault quake, University of Otago earthquake expert Professor Mark Stirling warns there's a bigger threat to Dunedin. Professor Craw said the old Akatore earthquake would have been similar in magnitude to the 2016 Kaikōura quake, with tens of kilometres of rocky coast affected, and the old shore lifted out of the water, well beyond the reach of the waves. We do not guarantee individual replies due to extremely high volume of correspondence. Only earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 or greater are listed, except for a few that had a moderate impact. This study analyzes 195 earthquakes recorded during the 6 month duration of the Southern Alps Passive Seismic Experiment (SAPSE) in 1995/1996 and two M₁. The best paleoseismic evidence to date suggests the southern and central sections of the Alpine Fault, at the boundary separating the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, typically rupture during very large full-section earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 or larger. This was "clearly devastating" for coastal species like kelp and shellfish, which were left literally high and dry. 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And understand our Privacy Policy Islander and likely many North Islanders, too no part may be reproduced without written! Earthquakes, the Alpine Fault quake most recent earthquakes uncovered by the researchers say area, we n't.
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